Cede la inflación en Estados Unidos, pero sigue siendo mayor previo a la guerra con Irán

La inflación en Estados Unidos se desaceleró el mes pasado y una medida de las presiones subyacentes sobre los precios también se moderó, lo que sugiere que el aumento de los precios del petróleo y la gasolina por la guerra con Irán solo está teniendo un impacto limitado en los costos más amplios de la economía.

Los precios al consumidor subieron un 3.4% en julio respecto de hace un año, una leve baja frente al 3.5% de junio, informó el Departamento de Trabajo el miércoles. Pero la inflación sigue siendo más alta que antes de que comenzara la guerra con Irán en febrero, cuando era del 2.4%. En términos mensuales, los precios aumentaron apenas un 0.1% de junio a julio.

La inflación ha sido impulsada por una serie de factores, entre ellos los aranceles del presidente Donald Trump, el encarecimiento de la gasolina derivado de la guerra con Irán y un auge de la inversión en infraestructura de inteligencia artificial que ha elevado los precios de los chips de computadora. La pregunta clave para quienes combaten la inflación en la Reserva Federal —y también para los consumidores que lidian con precios altos de la gasolina y los alimentos— es con qué rapidez se desvanecerán esos efectos puntuales.

Al excluir las volátiles categorías de alimentos y energía, la inflación subyacente también bajó a 2.5% en julio respecto de hace un año, frente al 2.6% de junio. Los precios subyacentes subieron 0.2% de junio a julio. Aumentos mensuales de alrededor de 0.2% serían lo suficientemente bajos con el tiempo como para acercar la inflación a la meta del 2% de la Reserva Federal.

Las cifras del miércoles podrían dar argumentos a los funcionarios de la Reserva Federal que favorecen mantener sin cambios su tasa clave, en torno al 3.6%, mientras la inflación desciende de manera sostenida por sí sola a medida que se diluyen esos factores temporales.

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